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When it comes to casino gambling, it's a sure bet Illinois will get it wrong. My observation is shared by no less an expert than Indiana's gambling czar, Ernest Yelton.
"One of our advantages to Illinois is they, historically, seem to do everything wrong," gloated Yelton, the executive director of the Indiana Gaming Commission, back in 2007.
A new smoking ban in Illinois was to take effect Jan. 1, 2008, and Yelton felt that Indiana's gambling revenue would boom. He noted that when the Trump Casino in Gary banned smoking on just one floor, within two weeks the guy running the place had to reverse his decision "because people wouldn't go."
"Gamblers smoke," Yelton said.
A new report on "Wagering in Illinois" confirms what Yelton knew three years ago.
When comparing casino revenue from 2007 (pre-smoking ban) with 2009, revenue from Chicago-area riverboats dropped by 32 percent.
"It's the economy, stupid," you say.
But the report by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability notes that Indiana's four riverboats nearest the Chicago area showed a decline in revenue of only 0.4 percent for the same period.
"The smoking ban impacts the gaming industry because of the high percentage of casino patrons that also smoke and desire to do so when gambling," the report states.
To which I respond, "Duh!"
Over the two-year period the report studied following the smoking ban (2008 and 2009), Illinois' gross casino revenue was down more than $500 million.
Now if you hate gambling and hate smoking even more, you may say, "Good."
I say that if you're trying to raise tax revenue through gambling, if you have already made the decision that people are going to find an illegal way to make their bets if you don't provide them with a legal means to do so, then Illinois' decision to send smokers scurrying across the border to Indiana is idiotic.
"Because many casino patrons like to smoke when gambling," the report continues, "the obvious reaction of smoking gamblers would be to look for a casino that allows them to light up. Unfortunately for most Illinois casinos, due to their close proximity to the casinos of neighboring states that do not enforce an indoor smoking ban, an alternative choice to gamble and smoke is easy to find."
This is not rocket science. You shouldn't need a report to tell you what should be obvious to anyone who has ever placed a dollar in a casino slot machine.
But this is Illinois, after all, where "everything they seem to do has backfired, and it's been to our benefit," according to Yelton.
On Monday, an Illinois House committee approved a measure that would allow gamblers to smoke in segregated, enclosed areas. That, my friends, is the very definition of "too little, too late."
In 2007, when I first wrote about Yelton's comments, Illinois was planning to expand the number of riverboat casinos into the south suburbs, and Indiana was worried about what would happen if competition suddenly opened across the border.
Yelton's comments were in essence: Don't worry. Illinois will find a way to screw this up.
And it did. Illinois did nothing.
Now, the Legislature is again considering a bill to expand the number of riverboat casinos.
But the same problems have surfaced that existed back in 2007. No one seems to know exactly what Chicago wants, and downstate legislators will oppose whatever that is.
A casino in the south suburbs would make sense because more than half of the customers visiting the gambling meccas of Hammond and Gary are from Illinois.
But the guys who make the decisions in Springfield have apparently decided that Ford Heights is the best place to put a casino in the south suburbs.
Would that actually be the best location? Has anyone done a study to determine if gamblers from Illinois would prefer Ford Heights to Country Club Hills, Calumet City, Chicago Heights or Lynwood?
No.
Is there any evidence that Ford Heights would be the preferred location of the companies that operate casinos?
No.
In fact, it isn't even the preferred location of south suburban politicians, who weren't asked for their opinion.
That's what Yelton meant when he said Illinois always manages to "botch the deal" when it comes to riverboat casinos.
The Democrats control the governor's mansion, the House and the Senate but can rarely agree on anything. And when they do agree, on issues such as the smoking ban, it's usually to the detriment of the state.
So during the worst economic crisis in 50 years, while casino gambling suffered almost everywhere, Indiana's casinos in Hammond and Gary showed only a modest drop in revenue.
Illinois got it right ... for people living in the Hoosier state.
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