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TRENTON — When New Jersey voters decide Tuesday whether to expand casino gambling to the northern part of the state, they'll be taking part in a referendum unlike most others in New Jersey history. 

It's the first time since 1976, when casinos were approved in Atlantic City, that voters will be asked to weigh in on gambling in the Garden State. 

And interest groups for and against the proposal have shattered the state record for spending on a ballot question, pumping more than $24 million into fliers, billboards, and television ads.

But a month before Election Day, proponents who had shelled out more than $8 million essentially waved the white flag by suspending their ad campaign because polling was dismal. That's unprecedented in such a high-stakes Jersey fight.  

Now the question appears to be not whether allowing casinos in north Jersey will be voted down. Instead, the betting may be on how big the defeat.  

"It's been highly unusual," Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said of the referendum. "And it's surprising because early on, I anticipated this would be a slam dunk."

Spending in north Jersey casino battle continues to soar

So what happened? 

Atlantic City has been the only place where casinos are allowed to exist in New Jersey for the last 40 years. But since then, the city's gaming market has severely shrunk as a string of gambling halls in neighboring states opened over the last decade. Five casinos in the seaside resort have shuttered since 2014. 

The ballot question calls for voters to approve two casinos to open at least 72 miles north of Atlantic City. The specific locations have not yet been decided. 

Proponents say passing it would do a many things: bring New Jersey thousands of jobs and millions of dollars in new revenue, send a portion of the money back to Atlantic City to help reinvent the town, send another cut to the state's struggling horse-racing industry, fund programs for older residents, and make sure the state stays competitive in the northeastern gaming market, drawing tourists and residents from the New York City area.

That's why state Assemblyman Ralph Caputo (D-Essex) has been surprised at the backlash. 

"Voting 'no' is not the answer," said Caputo, a former Atlantic City casino executive. "'No' does not create more jobs. 'No' does not reinvigorate the state's casino industry."

But opponents have a few issues. First, they say it would be a death knell for Atlantic City. Wall Street credit rating agency Fitch Ratings warned in June that as many as half of city's remaining casinos could close if northern casinos open. 

Assemblyman Chris A. Brown, who represents the city in the state Legislature, said studies show there are "a finite number of people who gamble."

"And by opening two new casinos, you are simply reshuffling the deck," Brown (R-Atlantic) said. 

Another issue is the unknowns. After an extended battle in the Legislature over the referendum's wording, the ballot question does not specify where the casinos would be or how much they would pay in taxes.

Plus, it requires current Atlantic City casino operators to at least have first crack at the new licenses, which critics say freezes out big-time operators like Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson.

Such uncertainty is what the main group opposing the proposal, known as Trenton's Bad Bet, latched onto. The group — funded in part by Genting New York, which operates Resorts World Casino in New York City and is a subsidiary of Malaysia-based Genting Malyasia Berhad — peppered the area with ads saying voters can't trust New Jersey's politicians with such a risky proposal.

It was a message that apparently hit hard not only during a 2016 president election when anti-government sentiment has been at a high, but also amid arguments in the Legislature about a pension crisis and raising the state's tax. Meanwhile, there's the ongoing Bridgegate trial that has surrounded Gov. Chris Christie's administration and the fact that Christie's approval rating is at a record low.

A recent survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll found 70 percent of New Jersey voters opposed the casino expansion.

"I think it's representative just how frustrated people are with all things Trenton — Chris Christie being primary, but it bleeds over to everything," said Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University.

The polling was enough to force the pro-expansion group Our Turn NJ to end its ad campaign at the end of September. The group was funded by by former Reebok CEO Paul Fireman and developer Jeff Gural, both of whom have proposed building northern casinos — the former in Jersey City, the latter at his Meadowlands Racetrack in East Rutherford.

It's all enough to wonder if the referendum is poised to suffer the biggest loss of any ballot question New Jersey has ever seen. The record is a $185 million plan to build a professional baseball stadium at the Meadowlands — which fell by nearly 500,000 votes in 1987.

Caputo, though, is hopeful for reviving the question in the coming years. He noted that New Jersey voters shot down bringing casinos to Atlantic City in 1974 but approved it just two years later.

"I still think it's good policy for the state of New Jersey," he said.

Brent Johnson may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Follow him on Twitter @johnsb01. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.