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ATLANTIC CITY— It's just a 28-mile drive from the Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens to the site adjacent to Liberty State Park where developers hope one day to build the first New Jersey casino outside of Atlantic City.

About an hour and fifteen minutes to the west is the Sands Casino Resort in Bethlehem, Pa. And just over 25 miles to the north is the Empire City Casino in Yonkers, N.Y.

If casino gaming in New Jersey is expanded into North Jersey—as is now being debated in the state Legislature—the casualties of the added competition will not just be Atlantic City, say industry observers. It will be the places that helped put the resort town on the edge of bankruptcy.

"I think there's going to be a negative impact to the Bethlehem Sands, Resorts World, and Yonkers as well," said Peter Trombetta, an analyst for Moody's Investors Service.

Trombetta said for the most part, no one is likely to drive past one casino to get to another. "It's a matter of convenience and location," he remarked.

Atlantic City, which once held a monopoly for east coast gaming, has been seeing its market share steadily erode since Foxwoods in Connecticut—which began as a bingo hall on the Mashantucket Pequot Indian Reservation in 1986—opened a full casino with table games in 1992. The competition has only grown, with 12 casinos now operating in Pennsylvania, two "racinos" at racetracks in Yonkers and Queens, as well as the casinos in Connecticut and Delaware.

Four Atlantic City casinos closed in 2014 and Wall Street analysts believe more will shut down this year, leading to a renewed push by legislative leaders to allow new casinos to be built in North Jersey, as a defensive move against losing even more of the state's dwindling gaming revenues  to Pennsylvania and New York.

To do that, State Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D-Gloucester) and state Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson)—after fighting for weeks over issue—are trying to get a resolution on the ballot in November asking voters to approve the building of two casinos in North Jersey. The state's constitution allows casino gambling only in Atlantic City.

They claim the plan will help retain some of the gaming revenues now going to other states, while bringing jobs and providing funds to help Atlantic City rebuild.

South Jersey legislators, however, remain strong opposed, arguing that new casinos in the north will cause more casinos to close in Atlantic City.

"Atlantic City is going to be an economic dust bowl if this happens," predicted state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May).

He said families who live and work in South Jersey are deeply worried that they are going to lose their jobs.

"If casinos are built outside of Atlantic City, there is no question that they will," he said. "I hope I'm wrong, but I believe that Atlantic City will be obliterated if this happens."

Both houses need to pass it by three-fifths majorities by August.

But Deutsche Bank Securities, in a report this month, said Atlantic City's casino industry is collapsing without any help from the proposal to build new casinos in North Jersey.

"Over the years, the Jersey casino monopoly has been carefully guarded by southern politicians, even as other markets, such as Philadelphia and New York, have eaten away at Atlantic City's historic lock on that broader market. Massive revenue deterioration took its toll on the market," said gaming analyst Andrew Zarnett.

He said the current wave of new development in other states will continue to take its toll on the market and lead to even more resorts closing in Atlantic City.

"We would expect Taj Mahal and a second Boardwalk casino to join the list of shuttered properties in the outer years," he said "By 2017, we foresee Atlantic City to have two center boardwalk casinos, the Tropicana, and three casino hotels located in the Marina district."

Betting on casino expansion

While the legislature has not endorsed any specific casino projects in North Jersey, developers have already put their chips on the table for two separate proposals in the Meadowlands and at Liberty State Park in Jersey City.

Paul Fireman, the Massachusetts venture capitalist who built his fortune on Reebok, is seeking to build a $4 billion hotel and casino complex at the exclusive Liberty National Golf Club adjacent to Liberty State Park that he calls Liberty Rising.

Less than 12 miles away in the Meadowlands, in the shadow of MetLife Stadium, Hard Rock International wants to build a casino at the Meadowlands Racetrack.

Trombetta expects if the Hard Rock Meadowlands Casino is built, it will attract New Jersey residents who now go to the Sands Casino Resort in Bethlehem, Pa. Liberty National, said the Moody's analyst, will bring in gamblers from New York who want more than what they can find at Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct Racetrack.

"The way we look at it is it's a matter of convenience and location," he said.

Officials at the Sands and Resorts World did not return calls for comment.

Analyst Michael Pollock, managing director of the Spectrum Gaming Group, believes it is not a zero-sum game, and that new casinos in North Jersey can attract people with a lot of discretionary income who are not going to Atlantic City, and also are not heading west to play the tables in Pennsylvania.

"Will it affect Atlantic City? Of course it will. But there are many adults in the market who do not visit Atlantic City," noted Pollock. "Depending on what gets built in North Jersey there is an opportunity to expand the overall market."

He pointed out that even in its best year, Atlantic City was only capturing about 18 percent of its target market.

"What we learned from that is 82 percent of the adults in this very large populous market chose to spend their discretionary funds elsewhere," he said. "It's not limitless, but the potential market is larger than the existing market."

Ted Sherman may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Follow him on Twitter @TedShermanSL. Find NJ.com on Facebook.