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Casino revenue in Macau fell for an eleventh straight month in April, declining 39% from a year earlier to 19.2 billion Macau patacas (MOP; US$2.4 billion). Fittingly dismal first quarter earnings from the five operators reporting so far accompanied the April numbers. Lack of visibility ahead is a recurring theme in management outlooks for the world’s leading gaming destination.

The key issue in Macau for much of the past year has been the decline in VIP play, which accounted for two-thirds of gaming revenue before the current turndown. President Xi Jinping’s corruption crackdown in mainland China takes blame for the fall. Big players choose to lay low, and as the drive has continued and widened its scope, fear has spread, inducing more players to stay away, visit less often or go to other destinations where they believe they can better avoid scrutiny from mainland authorities. Administrative changes, such as stricter enforcement of transit visa rules – formerly a free pass for VIPs and junket agents to come to Macau in excess of their allotted visas by claiming they’re en route to a third country but never leaving – may have had marginal impact.

Casino revenue, earnings and now tourists arrivals are all falling in Macau.(Photo credit: AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

In the first quarter, VIP play declined 42% from a year earlier and accounted for 58% of total revenue, compared with 64% a year earlier and 66% in 2013. But mass market play, which had been outstripping VIP growth for several years, fell 27% in the first quarter, so Macau doesn’t simply have a VIP problem. Some highly coveted premium mass players may possess sufficient wealth to fear scrutiny from mainland graft busters, but the vast majority does not.

Mass market play began falling late last year, even though Macau’s visitor arrivals kept rising. Analysts said Macau was getting more visitors at the lower end of the gaming spectrum as it cut table minimums and offered more incentives to players, while VIP contraction freed more tables and rooms for mass players. That explanation for the seemingly contradictory gaming revenue and arrival numbers suggested that Macau had a virtually limitless well of potential visitors to draw from and simply had to adjust the pricing dial to keep the stream of bodies flowing. That explanation fit the circumstances but wasn’t fully satisfying.

Last week, Macau released visitor figures for March showing a 13.5% year on year decline, including a 17.6% decline in arrivals from mainland China. Union Gaming Research Macau has been reporting since October that casino visitation had been dropping, based on its observations of Macau gaming floors. Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley noted last week that hotel room occupancy rates dropped in the first quarter, a trend it sees continuing as new supply comes on board. For Union, the March decline implies that mass market spending per player hasn’t fallen as much as generally believed.

Union analysts Grant Govertsen and Felicity Chiang say that the data suggests Macau doesn’t just have a spending problem but a visitor problem. Yes, lower value players are replacing higher value ones. But Chinese travelers are also choosing other destinations, and Macau hasn’t diversified its visitor base beyond the mainland. The travel trend is aided by other destinations’ eased visa access and lower currency valuations, with Japan and South Korea among the biggest beneficiaries.

“This is, of course, in the context of Macau losing its edge, “ Govertsen and Chiang write, “in terms of giving customers a reason to come back with frequency (nothing new to entice them to come back) and also in the context of a wide swath of customers avoiding Macau for political reasons. That said, we remain cautiously optimistic that mass market customers will become reinvigorated on the heels of new supply this year and early next year, resulting in a return to growth of both GGR and casino visitation.”

The opening of Galaxy Macau’s second phase along with new sister property Broadway Macau, the latter aimed squarely at mass market customers, will give an early indication of how much new supply – more specifically, judging from Galaxy’s track record, attractive, market attuned new supply – will help break Macau’s losing streak.

Hong Kong On Air author Muhammad Cohen is Editor At Large for Inside Asian Gaming. Follow him on Twitter @Muhammad Cohen.