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THE ISSUE:

State revenues from nine racinos in New York show signs of flattening out.

THE STAKES:

The trend does not bode well for towns betting on big revenues from casinos.

Three new state-licensed casinos may be a couple of years away from taking their first bets, but the latest income figures for the nine racinos suggest the state and local governments should lower their expectations on how much gambling revenue they'll be raking in.

The problem is that racino revenues are flattening. At some racinos, the money being collected from bettors is on the decline. At Monticello Casino and Raceway in Sullivan County, for example, betting fell by $40 million between 2012 and 2015. To combat what looks like a downward trend, the racinos are increasingly giving away free games to reward their best customers, according to the Times Union's Brian Nearing.

Racino operators say the free games are a loyalty rewards program that they need to help them compete with the private casinos elsewhere and Native American betting halls. The free games are awarded based on a bettor's wagering history. The aim is to keep certain bettors in the gambling halls longer — that is, giving them more opportunity to lose more money in order to fill the pockets of racino operators and support state education.

Although the racino in Saratoga Springs just recorded an all-time record year — $2.1 billion in video lottery bets — the amount it turned over to the state to support education was down by about $400,000 from the previous year. The reason was the $18.7 million it paid out to the winners of the free games.

This flattening or decline in racino betting must worry operators of the new casinos, as well, including operators of the planned Rivers Casino and Resort at Mohawk Harbor in Schenectady. Rather than drawing in well-heeled high rollers from elsewhere, most of the new casinos' customers will be middle class and from their own regions.

And it's important to recognize that the casinos' business model isn't based so much on the old adage, "find a need and fill it," as on a plan to create a need, and find a way to milk it.

If it follows the trend for racinos, it will not take long for New York's casino market to mature, too. Then operators will have to use similar marketing gimmicks, like free games, to keep patrons spending more. Expect some glitzy advertising touting rewards for frequent bettors.

It isn't hard to see a rise in problem gambling stemming from such aggressive strategies. Remember, the only way for casinos to make money is for most of the bettors to lose most of the time. And most of them are people who can't really afford it.

Nor is it a stretch to imagine a state government torn between its desire for more revenue and the need to rein in predatory marketing by the very industry that supplies it.

As to the dream of casinos solving many of our communities' problems by improving schools and reducing the burden of property taxes, it's likely to be just that — a dream. And for the less lucky, a nightmare.