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By Suzette Parmley/The Philadelphia Inquirer

ATLANTIC CITY — In retail, it's a numbers game, so whenever Rachel Lewis heard or read that another casino was closing here, she'd get knots in her stomach.

The thought racing through her mind: Fewer casinos means fewer hotels, which equates to fewer tourists at her stores.

"Every Shore town under and above Atlantic City relies on tourism," Lewis, 24, told The Philadelphia Inquirer. She's a district manager at Making Waves, an upscale women's apparel chain only at the Shore, with four shops within a two-hour drive of Atlantic City - in Stone Harbor, Ocean City, Long Beach Island, and one in Cape May that is open year-round.

"We live day to day, because if a casino closes, the people staying in that casino (hotel) don't even have the opportunity to come to Cape May," she said while working in the Cape May store. "We have less of a chance of getting customers. Atlantic City just happens to be a huge draw."

As the tourism capital of New Jersey, Atlantic City is enduring a shrinking gambling market that is expected to have ripple effects on the state's annual $40 billion tourism industry, which employs one out of 10 state residents.

Gaming and hospitality experts say the city is unlikely to recoup the $2.3 billion it has lost in gambling revenue since 2006, or to open any more casinos. Atlantic City's best chance, they say, is to focus on developing nongaming attractions to get people there, and keeping as many of the remaining casinos healthy. Otherwise, it will diminish the state's tourism economy - particularly in surrounding Shore communities.

"The Jersey Shore, as a brand, is very dependent on Atlantic City," said Israel "Izzy" Posner at the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality, and Tourism at Richard Stockton College. "It's difficult for the Shore to shine if Atlantic City isn't shining.

"Atlantic City, by far, is the most popular destination in the state."

About 25 million people visit the resort each year, most of them in the summer. And while in town, many also pay visits to nearby Cape May, Wildwood, and Ocean City for shopping, sightseeing, or dining, surveys by Shore tourism officials have shown. Cape May County's $5.5 billion tourism industry includes day trips from surrounding areas, especially Atlantic City.

"The people that go to Atlantic City always go to Cape May during or after their trip to A.C. casinos," Lewis said. "It is a staple. When they are not going to Atlantic City, that cuts us out the picture."

Elvira Elder, 60, of Dublin, N.H., arrived by bus Wednesday with a group of 31 for a two-day visit in Cape May. They shopped, ate, and walked the Cape May boardwalk all day Thursday. But Friday was spent at Resorts Casino Hotel in Atlantic City for a day of gambling and lunch.

"I paid for this trip in the early part of the year," Elder said as she picked out a Cape May T-shirt on sale for $10 at Making Waves. "I was coming whether they closed all the casinos or not."

That perception, said Diane Wieland, director of the Cape May Department of Tourism - that everything is shutting down in Atlantic City - is a marketing challenge.

"In all of our surveys, 25 to 29 percent of those who go to A.C. come to Cape May for a day trip," she said. "We market the quaintness of Cape May County, and the glamour and glitz of Atlantic City that's within 38 miles."

The casinos "have been our hook," Wieland said. "The superstar has been Atlantic City because they are No. 1 in generating expenditures in the state. We are a close second, but we need them.

"We still boast," she said, "about how close we are to Atlantic City."

Of New Jersey's 21 counties, four along the Shore account for 51 percent of all tourism dollars. Atlantic County leads with 18 percent, followed by Cape May County at 15 percent, Ocean County with 12 percent, and Monmouth County 6 percent.

This winter, Shore merchants say, will be the first test as business in general declines substantially, and now on top of that, the impact of four shuttered Atlantic City casinos and the loss of about 8,000 jobs so far.

The most recent was Trump Plaza, which closed Tuesday and with it a 906-room hotel. The Atlantic Club closed Jan. 13, and Showboat and Revel shut down over Labor Day weekend. Trump Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy this month and may close in mid-November with its finances teetering.

"It's a stressful time right now," said Jim Thomas, co-owner of Charlie's Bar & Restaurant in Somers Point. "You wonder who's next."

As he spoke, baseball and football games blared from multiple TV screens. The iconic bar, named for Thomas' great-grandfather, has been around since 1944, for four generations. It draws mostly families in the summer, and locals and year-round residents in the winter. Many casino workers are regulars. Thomas said he had not yet seen a drop-off among them.

"Right now, it's wait and see," he said. "I've talked to many others in the area. Everyone is thinking the worst. We're 15 or 20 miles from Atlantic City. It's a trickle-down effect like everything else."

Lori Pepenella, head of destination marketing and director of communications for Long Beach Island, said big events in Atlantic City, including this year's Air Show, free beach concerts, and the Miss America Pageant, helped to attract visitors to the entire Shore region. Some visitors, she said, extended their stay by a day or two to visit LBI.

The big events in Atlantic City, she said, "encourage vacationers to spend more time with us."

Paul and Linda D'Alessio of Northport, on Long Island's North Shore, arrived Tuesday in Egg Harbor City for their getaway. They stayed at Tuscan House Hotel at Renault Winery. After dinner, they toured the winery. They did the beach and Boardwalk in Atlantic City on Wednesday, and Cape May for lunch and shopping Thursday. The couple loaded their Chevrolet Silverado pickup Friday to make the three-hour drive back.

"I have to say, I really enjoyed Atlantic City," said Paul D'Alessio, 55, sitting on a bench with his wife last week in Cape May. "I grew up within five miles of water, and the ocean was beautiful.

"It's a shame," he said of the casino shutdowns. "I think it's a general comment on the state of the economy and technology (with online gaming) because you don't have to go to Atlantic City to gamble anymore."

Dry Shore towns, such as Ocean City - nicknamed "America's greatest family resort" - which have no bars, liquor stores, or BYOBs, may fare better than wet ones. Atlantic City is associated with gambling and drinking for the 21-and-over crowd, and Cape May, with its bars, nightlife, and staying open year-round like the casinos, may lose more business.

"With four casinos closing, without a doubt, it will affect us down the road," said Mark Ryan, general manager of the Lobster House, a restaurant next to a marina on Route 9 in Cape May. "Not so much in the summer ... but we'll see the difference in the winter."

Moby Richard, 58, a retired electrical engineer from Casco Bay, Maine, lives on a sailboat - a Catalina 30 he named Allegro - and docks at the marina as a layover en route to Key West, Fla.

When in town, he hangs out at Lucky Bones, a bar and restaurant across from the Lobster House, and sails into Atlantic City at night. He said the casinos' lights - especially those bathing the silhouette of the endangered Taj Mahal - were a sight to behold.

"I hope it does not turn into a ghost town," he said last week. "It would be sad to just see that go empty."