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What a difference a month makes, sort of. Macau’s casino revenue fell 3.6% in July, following a 3.7% decline in June, the first year on year decrease in monthly revenue in five years. After the release of June numbers, investors flocked into Macau gaming stocks, apparently convinced the worst was over. After the July numbers, Macau gaming operators’ shares traded in Hong Kong and US got ripped, declining by an average of nearly 2% Friday on both sides of the Pacific. This time, investors apparently know bad news when they see it.

By the numbers, July wasn’t quite as bad as June. Gross gaming revenue for July came in at 28.4 billion Macau patacas (MOP; $3.55 billion), Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reports. The 3.6% decline was slightly better than many forecasts, and an improvement over June. Even after two months of declines, Macau’s gaming revenue is still tracking up 10.2% for the year. Yet this marginally better news produced a big sell off for shares. It’s not hard to see why.

In June, the first revenue drop in five years could be read as a signal that Macau’s gaming revenue slowdown had reached the bottom. Two months of decline seems more like a trend, and this one is likely to continue.

Some observers attributed the June decline to the World Cup. But analysts including Wells Fargo Securities’ Cameron McKnight say there was no meaningful post-World Cup bounce. VIP play was estimated down by about 20% as in June, while mass market play continued to expand around 30%, and July produced similar results.

A Union Gaming Research Macau report released Friday concurs there was no World Cup rebound. Report authors Grant Govertsen and Felicity Chiang expect “VIP to continue to be soft over the near term, and [we] would expect GGR to continue to decline in the low single-digits through the summer.” The analysts don’t see any reversal of the trend in the cards. “Based on numerous conversations we’ve had with industry insiders, over the past few days and weeks, we believe there is nothing on the horizon to suggest a VIP recovery is imminent,” they write.

Govertsen and Chiang believe the corruption crackdown in China has spurred the VIP decline, putting indirect pressure on VIP players and junket promoters. The announcement of an investigation into former state security chief Zhou Yongkang may mean the crackdown is getting more serious, though some observers dismiss the anticorruption campaign as cover for a simple political purge. Govertsen and Chiang also see a combination of forces, including China’s slowed pace of economic growth and credit expansion, hurting junket liquidity, especially among smaller junkets.

Another factor that may suppress VIP numbers in the fourth quarter could come from the Philippines. Solaire will launch its all-suite extension in November, aimed squarely at high rollers. Perhaps more significantly, Melco Crown will open City of Dreams Manila. Both resorts will want to make big splashes our of the gate, pushing junket promoters to send them players, leading to some diversion of revenue from Macau, at least in the short run

It all adds up to little prospect for Macau’s VIP revenue to recover significantly in the months ahead. Factor in that the final three months of last year marked Macau’s first ever MOP100 billion quarter, making for challenging year on year comparisons in those months, and there could be more declines ahead for casino revenue.

The slump in VIP revenue should provide a wakeup call to operators, at least the smart ones. They’ve been able to open the doors and let the players file in, with junkets finding high rollers to provide two-thirds of gaming revenue. For the past couple of years, premium mass market players have topped up the tank. “Casinos haven’t had to dig too deep because they have been so many new rich in China,” Mary Mendoza, managing director of Macau based marketing consultant The Platinum Ltd, says.

Now that the big spenders aren’t jumping into the boat, casinos may take the opportunity to cast their nets wider. Just as VIP revenue has fallen to 60% of the total, with mass market replacing nearly all of the catch, operators might get more serious about moving the needle from 90% of play from greater China to seek a broader mix from Asia and beyond, before rival destinations claim those markets.